-
Research Article
A Universal Model for General Gross Domestic Product Across Global Economies
Billy Gao*
Issue:
Volume 12, Issue 3, June 2024
Pages:
127-141
Received:
3 April 2024
Accepted:
9 May 2024
Published:
17 May 2024
Abstract: In addressing the need for a robust economic measure, this paper presents a mathematical model to forecast Gross Domestic Product (GDP) across diverse global economies. Our model, constructed from a dataset spanning 39 years from 16 varied economies, deciphers GDP by dissecting its fundamental components of population and productivity. Through meticulous literature review and data analysis, the research develops four predictive models, using linear and exponential trends, to represent the immediate and projected rates of change in both population and productivity. The research reveals a nuanced dynamic between these elements, identifying productivity, especially in infrastructure, healthcare, telecommunications, and innovation, as a pivotal force in driving economic growth. The study not only underlines the significant influence of these sectors but also the critical role of developed economies in aiding less developed ones to counteract the widening poverty gap. A comprehensive sensitivity analysis within the paper evaluates the impact of these factors on GDP, equipping policymakers with essential insights into enhancing economic progress. By combining immediate and long-term growth metrics derived from twenty-four influential variables into a cohesive predictive model, this research illuminates the complex interplay of forces shaping GDP trajectories. It suggests that while boosting population can yield short-term economic gains, enduring prosperity hinges on amplifying productivity. Moreover, the study points to the potential socio-economic divides that necessitate proactive measures for equitable development. Although challenges such as data dependency and growth discrepancies are acknowledged, the model proposes more frequent data analyses for capturing economic fluctuations accurately. Conclusively, the paper bridges a critical gap in economic modeling literature and provides a pragmatic framework for crafting inclusive economic policies and development strategies, thus making a significant contribution to both theoretical and applied economic fields.
Abstract: In addressing the need for a robust economic measure, this paper presents a mathematical model to forecast Gross Domestic Product (GDP) across diverse global economies. Our model, constructed from a dataset spanning 39 years from 16 varied economies, deciphers GDP by dissecting its fundamental components of population and productivity. Through meti...
Show More
-
Research Article
Impact of Changes in Fuel Prices on Inflation and Economic Growth in Mozambique
Issue:
Volume 12, Issue 3, June 2024
Pages:
142-160
Received:
21 April 2024
Accepted:
13 May 2024
Published:
30 May 2024
Abstract: The fuel oil is a basic input to production, so an increase in oil price leads to a rise in production costs that induces firms to lower output. In parallel, oil prices change also effects, indirectly, the consumption, through its positive relation with disposable income. However, despite the relevance of the variation in fuel prices in economy, there are no recent study conducted to analyse the impact of changes in fuel prices on GDP and CPI in Mozambique. This study aims to contribute to filling the information gap by providing the quantification of the impact of fuel prices on GDP and CPI. So, the study aim to determine the impact of changes in FUEL prices on Inflation (Consumer Price Index – CPI) and Economic Growth (Gross Domestic Product – GDP), using quarter data from 2007 to 2020. Descriptive statistics, Unit Root Test, Johansen Cointegration Test and Error Correction Model, Granger Causality Econometric Models, Impulse and Response Function and Variance Decomposition Analysis are used. The results indicate that in Mozambique there are a cointegrating long-run relationship between FUEL prices and CPI and GDP, which suggest that the impact of FUEL prices shocks to CPI and GDP in short-run and long-run path. Also, the results show that changes in GDP and FUEL prices lead to an increase in CPI by 3.0% and 1.3%, respectively, coeteris paribus. The previous quarter’s errors (or deviation from long-run equilibrium) are corrected for with the current quarter at a convergence speed of 3.5% to GDP, and 4.8% to CPI. Granger causality tests also indicate causality between CPI and GDP, and the changes in GDP causes changes in other variables.
Abstract: The fuel oil is a basic input to production, so an increase in oil price leads to a rise in production costs that induces firms to lower output. In parallel, oil prices change also effects, indirectly, the consumption, through its positive relation with disposable income. However, despite the relevance of the variation in fuel prices in economy, th...
Show More
-
Research Article
Financial Development in the Face of Rising Public Debt in Ghana: A Qualitative Study
Issue:
Volume 12, Issue 3, June 2024
Pages:
161-171
Received:
24 April 2024
Accepted:
15 May 2024
Published:
30 May 2024
Abstract: This qualitative study explored the relationship between financial development and public debt within the context of Ghana. It sought to comprehend the impact of rising public debt on financial development and the broader implications for economic growth and stability in Ghana, a lower middle-income country grappling with high debt levels and fiscal challenges. The study thus employed a qualitative research paradigm, gathering data through face-to-face interviews with sixteen (16) economic and financial experts from five (5) prominent banks in Ghana. This method allowed for an in-depth appreciation of the subjective perceptions and insights of stakeholders directly involved in or affected by Ghana’s financial and public debt management sectors. Ethical considerations were meticulously adhered to, ensuring informed consent and confidentiality of the participants. The study revealed a moderate pace of financial development hindered by high-interest rates and limited access to credit. Public debt was perceived as excessively high, posing significant financial stability and economic growth risks. Policy recommendations from the study emphasize the need for fiscal discipline, improved regulatory frameworks, enhanced financial inclusion, and strategic investment in infrastructure and education. This study contributes to the literature by providing a qualitative insight into the complex dynamics between financial development and public debt in Ghana, a topic that has been less explored in empirical studies, especially from a qualitative perspective.
Abstract: This qualitative study explored the relationship between financial development and public debt within the context of Ghana. It sought to comprehend the impact of rising public debt on financial development and the broader implications for economic growth and stability in Ghana, a lower middle-income country grappling with high debt levels and fisca...
Show More
-
Research Article
Banking Performance During the Global Financial Crisis: Empirical Evidence from Bangladesh
Issue:
Volume 12, Issue 3, June 2024
Pages:
172-184
Received:
28 April 2024
Accepted:
29 May 2024
Published:
13 June 2024
Abstract: Purpose-The Russia-Ukraine conflict and 19 pandemics have severely damaged the world economy. Banking institutions are crucial to the functioning of any economy, and their financial standing is a vital indicator of the economy's stability. Any major development, be it political or economic, has an impact on the banking industry. The dollar rate's volatility and other issues hurt the GDP. Therefore, the study examines banking performance in vulnerable global situations before and during the pandemic. This study utilizes 7 years of panel data to analyze global financial crisis banking performance. Design/methodology- Eight ratios were used to compare the banks' profitability, efficiency, liquidity position, and default risk: return on asset, asset utilization ratio, operational efficiency ratio, debt to asset ratio, loan to deposit ratio, loan to asset ratio, credit risk, and bank size. The descriptive statistics show lower ROA and AUR values for banks, but a lower CR value suggests that pandemic-era borrowers will repay their loans on time. Findings – Due to their reliance on borrowed capital, banks may be more vulnerable to default and financial leverage since they lack the liquidity to meet unforeseen requirements for funds. This is indicated by the higher mean values of DAR, LDR, and LAR. Ratio analysis shows that pre-pandemic banks profited well throughout the pandemic. State-owned banks have a worse position in profitability, efficiency, and default risk but a better position in liquidity in both study periods. Conventional banks placed first in profitability, but Islamishariah-based banks placed first in efficiency, high liquidity risk, and low default risk. Originality –This study will help bank officials find the flaw and prevent it from improving financial performance and recovering from the global crisis. This may assist bank investors and depositors in choosing wisely.
Abstract: Purpose-The Russia-Ukraine conflict and 19 pandemics have severely damaged the world economy. Banking institutions are crucial to the functioning of any economy, and their financial standing is a vital indicator of the economy's stability. Any major development, be it political or economic, has an impact on the banking industry. The dollar rate's v...
Show More
-
Research Article
Managerial Competences and Financial Performance: A Study on NGOs in Central Division-Fort Portal City
Issue:
Volume 12, Issue 3, June 2024
Pages:
185-195
Received:
7 May 2024
Accepted:
24 May 2024
Published:
13 June 2024
Abstract: Democratic Governance Facility (DGF) still remain the biggest funder of most NGOs in the region, however most NGOs still face challenges in not only obtaining funds but also managing them. This study was carried out to examine the relationship between managerial competences and financial performance of NGOs in Fort Portal Tourism City. A quantitative research design was adopted to achieve the research objectives. Out of a total population of 320 employees, 183 respondents were selected using simple and stratified random sampling techniques. The study used structured questionnaires to collect data from managers, accountants, field officers, office assistants and secretaries. Apparently, one hundred eighty three copies of the questionnaire were administered to respondents but only one hundred seventy three were properly filled and returned constituting response rate of 94.50%. Construct and content validity were adopted and the reliability co-efficient of the items in the instrument ranged between 0.70 and 0.78. Descriptive and inferential statistics (simple and multiple linear regression analyses) were used to analyze data. The study findings reveal that managerial competences have a significant effect on financial performance of NGOs in Fort Portal Tourism City (Adj. R2 = 0.375; F (4, 427) = 61.906, p<0.05). The conclusion drawn by this study is that managerial competences affect financial performance of NGOs in Fort Portal Tourism City. The study recommends that management of NGOs in Fort Portal City should make extra effort in investing in their managerial competences in order to improve their financial performance. Management of NGOs should constantly review the managerial competence profile for better managerial decisions and performance improvement.
Abstract: Democratic Governance Facility (DGF) still remain the biggest funder of most NGOs in the region, however most NGOs still face challenges in not only obtaining funds but also managing them. This study was carried out to examine the relationship between managerial competences and financial performance of NGOs in Fort Portal Tourism City. A quantitati...
Show More
-
Research Article
Exploring the Emotional Experience of Tourists in Immersive Service Scenarios: A Case Study of Super Wenheyou Restaurant
Issue:
Volume 12, Issue 3, June 2024
Pages:
196-210
Received:
27 April 2024
Accepted:
15 June 2024
Published:
19 June 2024
DOI:
10.11648/j.ijefm.20241203.16
Downloads:
Views:
Abstract: With the rapid development of the immersive service scenarios, the practical problems of the tourism industry have gradually undergone qualitative changes, and the core contradiction has changed from the simple "tourism attraction" to the more complex "tourism experience quality" problem. In the process of "immersive experience", "emotion" plays a powerful guiding role in the immersive scenarios design, guiding tourists to real-time interaction, immersive and emotional resonance. Therefore, emotional experience has become the key in the development of immersive service scenarios. This study collects the data of tourists in Wenheyou through a questionnaire of tourists' emotional experience test, and discusses the tourists' emotional experience needs, effects and improvement strategies under the background of the three-stage characteristics of immersive scenarios and emotional interaction. Tourists' emotional experience and Word frequency by ROST CM (ROST Content Mining System) 6.0, was employed for data analysis. The study elucidates that within the Wenheyou immersive service scenarios, the physical service environment, cultural stimuli, and service products serve as primary catalysts for fostering positive emotional experiences among tourists. Drawing on psychological theories and utilizing the PANAS (Positive Affect and Negative Affect Schedule) scale and Robert Plutchik's emotion wheel model, the research delves into tourists' emotional experiences within the Wenheyou immersive service scenarios. It identifies key factors shaping positive and negative emotional experiences, offering valuable insights for service enterprises to enhance tourists' emotional quality.
Abstract: With the rapid development of the immersive service scenarios, the practical problems of the tourism industry have gradually undergone qualitative changes, and the core contradiction has changed from the simple "tourism attraction" to the more complex "tourism experience quality" problem. In the process of "immersive experience", "emotion" plays a ...
Show More
